The 2019/20 financial year was truly extraordinary.  For the first eight months it was steady progress, with asset prices modestly inflating, interest rates staying low and consumer confidence elevated.  Then the pandemic triggered the diametric opposite, a large deflation of asset prices, an economic conflagration and worrying social and health concerns.

My last quarterly report, in early April, coincided with the depths of the market downturn, at which time the wellbeing, social and economic effects and consequences of the global pandemic were entirely unknown.  Three months later there is some clarity and a modestly improved stock market, but still immense uncertainties and rattled consumer and business confidence. 

Firstly, and most importantly, the wellbeing of all is foremost in our minds and we sincerely hope for a quick resolution to the awful crisis that is engulfing the world, and a reversion to normality without too much more hardship or suffering.

Stock markets are always the first and most obvious financial indicator when things go awry.   When uncertainty leads to pessimism, (and ultimately fear), market pricing dislocates, as it has in the last month.  This dislocation is amplified by the very mechanics of markets, where computer systems, short selling and algorithms drive volatility indiscriminately.  This period of significant volatility should be relatively short lived, but significant uncertainties remain, such that we expect further bouts of sharp price movements in the coming months.

Investment markets have dislocated in recent weeks, sent into panic by the global Coronavirus pandemic, and consternation about the extent of its effect on human health, consumer spending, economic activity and corporate profitability.

No one can predict the extent to which the disease will spread before containment, nor precisely the effect it will have economically.  But we do have experience in understanding and reacting to periods of significant investment market volatility, particularly shares, so we proffer these observations...