The 2019/20 financial year was truly extraordinary.  For the first eight months it was steady progress, with asset prices modestly inflating, interest rates staying low and consumer confidence elevated.  Then the pandemic triggered the diametric opposite, a large deflation of asset prices, an economic conflagration and worrying social and health concerns.

My last quarterly report, in early April, coincided with the depths of the market downturn, at which time the wellbeing, social and economic effects and consequences of the global pandemic were entirely unknown.  Three months later there is some clarity and a modestly improved stock market, but still immense uncertainties and rattled consumer and business confidence. 

Stock markets displayed their unpredictability in 2019, striding surprisingly and steadily higher after shaking off the volatility of the prior year. Low interest rates and generally benevolent economic and profit conditions provided the catalyst.

The turnaround in markets that began in January has continued for much of 2019 to date, such that share prices are generally now at or near historic highs. The strength of the rise, Australian shares are up about 20% in 2019 including dividends, is surprising, but so too was the abruptness of the market decline in the last quarter of 2018...