The first quarter of 2019 was distinctly different, and much improved, from the final quarter of last year.  Stock markets which had slumped badly recovered just as quickly, erasing the losses of late-2018 within a few months.

A notable economic feature of late is the inexorable rise in US interest rates, and its consequential effect on rates elsewhere, and market valuations. Equally notable is the escalation of trade disputes, most particularly between the United States and China. This shift towards greater protectionism by the United States could, if not mitigated, trigger more dramatic retaliatory actions, possibly including currency devaluations, and stands as a primary market risk as we look to the remainder of 2018 and into 2019.

Last quarter I wrote about unusually low investment market volatility in 2017, and the likelihood that 2018 would not pass so calmly. On cue, a wave of volatility hit at the beginning of February, caused by a tantrum in the US bond market, and has continued since. Clearly, this year will be defined by more frequent ups and downs, so investors should remain wary.